no more fingernails

I have a blog and it's Oscar Night, so I have to bite the bullet and make some FINAL predictions. Of course, if I'm wrong my choices are here for all the world to see, but I think I'm mature enough to handle that.

This is an extremely hard year to call. Prognosticators all over the web are providing caveats and alternative choices, warning that they're very likely to be wrong. I have the distinct feeling that there will be some kind of an upset tonight (don't take your eye off Imelda Staunton), but you can't invoke the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in cases like this. A smart man once told me to always go with the conventional wisdom when making Oscar picks because you can't predict the unpredictable. So here we go:

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eternal Sunshine
• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sideways
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Morgan Freeman
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett
• BEST ACTOR: Jamie Foxx
• BEST ACTRESS: Hilary Swank
• BEST DIRECTOR: Clint Eastwood
• BEST PICTURE: Million Dollar Baby

It's gonna be a nailbiter. Pay attention to some key awards: if M$B wins for Editing or Adapted Screenplay, then it's a shoe-in for Best Picture. The Aviator could win a bunch of technical awards and still come up short (as I predict above). Tonight is the show-down between Marty and Clint and we won't know the results until the bitter end...